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Match-lines: 2006 World Cup Soccer versus Logic . . .
— 2006 World Cup Statistics Section
  ...  If logic sufficed...
 
                 
     
 
 
 
 
  Match-lines: Soccer x Logic...  
Magic of complexity   World Cup Match Line If logic sufficed...
Soccernomics! Related: WC Groups & FIFA Rankings Beyond logic...
 
 
 
The results of a scientific-based attempt, by the Decision Technology group at the , at figuring out the odds for the 2006 World Cup are as follows: France surprisingly tops the list, their squad having 11.6% chances of winning this World Cup, the heavy favorite Brazil, again surprisingly, rating at only 11.3%, host-county squad Germany 11.1%, the Netherlands 11%, Spain 10.1%, the Czech Republic, likewise surprisingly (in view of FIFA's rankings), at only 8.2%, Italy 5.8%, Portugal 5.1%, ahead of Argentina and Sweden, both assigned no more than 4.9% chances of winning the World Cup, and England only 4.7%. The remaining contestants all rate below 1% chance, lining up behind Croatia (2.9%), their squad followed by both the United States and Mexico, sharing a mere 1.4%, and by Poland (1.3%). For the full results, see the article and chart published by , or check the on-line section of the (English papers, both), or , if you have time to spare and trust you can understand how the statistical model works.
 
The use of possibly a far evidently renders different results, Brazil rating at a 13.5% chance of winning, followed by both France and Germany (11%), and by the Netherlands and Spain–these squads comprising the top five. (The page linked to includes a number of readers' comments, as well.)
 
The , on the other hand, published news from Dubai, on June 8, according to which Brazil is predicted to win this World Cup, once more playing the final match against Italy (it would be their third final, if confirmed!). This prediction results from a computer model based on statistics, developed by two 22-year old Computer Science students (Imran Fanaswala and Yashar Fasihnia) at the American University in Sharjah, under the supervision of their professor (Prof. Joachim Diederich). FIFI, which stands for FIFA Intelligence, is the name given to their artificial intelligence World Cup predictor. The predicted semifinal matches are to be the Netherlands versus Italy and England versus Brazil–the Netherlands having eliminated the World Cup hosts (Germany) in the quarterfinals, and England likewise sending old rivals home, as they are predicted to beat Argentina, on their way to the semifinals. See the article for further details, including reference to the fact that the larger the number of variables which can be included in our attempts to predict (such as "pitch condition, temperature, age of players, experience," etc., in the case of soccer) the greater the accuracy in the result–see previous eBook page Magic of complexity for related remarks.
 
Finally, news predict the Czech Republic as this World Cup winner, defeating Brazil by a 2x1 score, in the final match! The prediction once more relied on artificial intelligence: it was made by software engineers from Electronic Arts (a firm specialized in sports computer games), who used a computer simulation of the World Cup.
 
Should you wish to try your hand at predicting the World Cup results, the BBC site carries what they call a . I have not tried it, so I cannot tell you beyond the fact that it is available, and that it does not look like it is attached to any sort of betting or gambling.
 
In addition to the tables that follow, see the Beyond logic... page for a few fun numerical attempts at predicting (most of which mentioned on the FIFA site), and then see the Soccernomics! page for an original approach at predicting the World Cup outcome, which did not exactly bear a relationship to soccer, but which actually turned out to be remarkably accurate, give or take a very small margin of error.
 
Below, the simplest method of all (merely following FIFA's latest rankings before the World Cup kick-off) renders a fun illustration of how far from logic soccer results can really get. Don't forget to compare the "logical results," below, with the actual results, placed on the eBook page World Cup Match Line in the same format as below, so as to allow the comparison at a glance.
 
 
if logic sufficed... Squads playing 2nd.Rd.:    


Germany
Costa Rica
Poland
Ecuador



England
Paraguay
Trinidad and Tobago
Sweden



Argentina
Côte d'Ivoire
Serbia and Montenegro
Netherlands



Mexico
Iran
Angola
Portugal



Italy
Ghana
United States
Czech Republic



Brazil
Croatia
Australia
Japan



France
Switzerland
Korea Republic
Togo



Spain
Ukraine
Tunisia
Saudi Arabia

in bold, above: logical group winners, following FIFA's Teams' Ranking (Update 5)
compare to World Cup's actual Match Line
see First Round Stats
 
  If logic sufficed . . . 
Original Groups If logic sufficed...
Gr.A-B-C-D Squads playing Round of 16:
  If logic sufficed...
Gr.E-F-G-H Squads playing Round of 16:
Original Groups
         
1A � 2B Germany x Sweden   United States x Japan 1E 2F
1B 2A England x Costa Rica   Brazil x Czech Republic 1F 2E
1C 2D Netherlands x Portugal   France x Tunisia 1G 2H
1D 2C Mexico x Argentina   Spain x Korea Republic 1H 2G
         
  Squads playing Quarter-Finals:   Squads playing Semi-Finals:  
B � C Sweden x Netherlands      
B � D England x Mexico   Netherlands x United States C � E
E � G United States x France   Mexico x Brazil D � F
F � H Brazil x Spain      
  Squads playing 3rd.Pl.Match:   Squads playing Final Match:  
E � D United States x Mexico   Netherlands x Brazil C � F
            
compare to World Cup's actual Match Line (final results right below)
            
 
Related Section: WC Groups & FIFA Rankings
 
World Cup Statistics       
   2006 WC in Perspective    W.Cup's Dream Team    Groups+FIFA Ranking    Previous Bits+Bytes
   First Round Stats    Beyond the 1st Rd    The Final Contenders    Gold-Silver-Bronze
   The Champion    Awards    Records+Memorable    Noteworthy
   Attacks+Defenses    Goals    Goal Scorers    Goalkeepers
   Own Goals    Referees  -  Fouls    Yellow Cards    Red Cards
   Discipline    Support+Dev.Group    Ref.Preliminary Stuff    WC+FIFA Rankings
   WC Players' Sources    Players by Groups    Home-based teams?    Home-based, alphb
   Match-lines: WCxLogic    Magic of complexity    The WC Match-lines    If logic sufficed...
   Attendance    All Time 0x0 Results    World Cup Warm-up    Beyond logic...
 
 
 
  Man of the Match 
 
  Match by Match Top Players Player by Player  
 
 
  –  Squad Pages  +  Group Pages  –       Players' Sources           Stadia+Matches     Nations
#      Group      Group      Group      Group #
1 GER: Germany ENG: England ARG: Argentina MEX: Mexico 1
2 CRC: Costa Rica PAR: Paraguay CIV: Côte d'Ivoire IRN: Iran 2
3 POL: Poland TRI: Trinidad and Tobago SCG: Serbia and Montenegro ANG: Angola 3
4 ECU: Ecuador SWE: Sweden NED: Netherlands POR: Portugal 4
#      Group      Group      Group      Group #
1 ITA: Italy BRA: Brazil FRA: France ESP: Spain 1
2 GHA: Ghana CRO: Croatia SUI: Switzerland UKR: Ukraine 2
3 USA: United States AUS: Australia KOR: Korea Republic TUN: Tunisia 3
4 CZE: Czech Republic JPN: Japan TOG: Togo KSA: Saudi Arabia 4
Abbreviations, above: used by FIFA, as well as in this eBook.
Please Note: ESP for Spain, and KSA for Saudi Arabia, above.
Numbers 1-4, above, correspond to the numbering used for the Groups drawing,
in Leipzig (2005), number one being the seed.squad, in each Group.
 
External links to free clips
 
  All Match Schedules    World Cup Calendar Watch 
 
  World Time Zones, DST, etc.    World Cup Weather 
 
World Cup: All Results Points & Standings Statistics
 
      2006 World Cup
Short Menu      
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  All Results   Points & Standings   W.C. Statistics   W.C. Weather
  Words on the Pitch   World Cup Fun!   Links   More W.C., On-Line
  W.C. eBook FAQ   Enjoy Your eBook!   More eBooks - Free!   Discover MieNet
 
 
The current World Cup e-Book + updates:
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